Ongoing challenges

The topics explored in this report are complex. It is not surprising, therefore, that significant uncertainties remain in how economic development can best be used to improve people’s health. This chapter highlights three of the most pressing challenges:

  • how to use economic development in a way that is good for people’s health and environmentally sustainable
  • the need to strengthen the evidence base
  • resolving the tension between market efficiency and economic localisation.

6.1 Using health-promoting, environmentally sustainable economic development

Latest evidence suggests that avoiding catastrophic climate change requires a rapid transition to decarbonise the economy. Therefore, a major challenge for the coming years is how to develop an economy which both creates conditions that are good for people’s health and is environmentally sustainable. This issue is recognised in the UK Industrial Strategy, which identifies clean growth as a key challenge and focuses on developing a UK zero-carbon industrial sector.

Several approaches have been proposed to achieve this. One commonly referenced approach involves the idea of a circular economy: where all materials are recycled through the system to minimise waste. However, this approach is unlikely to represent a complete solution and there is debate about the extent to which it is likely to lead to the required changes. The Green New Deal has received attention and proposes a package of solutions including investment, job creation and large-scale decarbonisation. Another proposal that has gained traction is that of a 'just transition' – a move to a low- or zero-carbon economy that protects workers (in terms of job security, pay, pensions and trade union recognition).

Debate continues about whether green growth is possible. ONS analysis before the COVID-19 pandemic showed that the UK has succeeded in reducing its carbon emissions in recent years despite increases in GDP, although this analysis also highlights that the continued demand for manufactured goods may limit this trend across the world. Some argue that it is not possible to totally separate GDP from energy and resource consumption, and have suggested alternative paradigms such as degrowth and as appropriate goals for national economies, rather than constant growth.

There remains a lack of consensus or convincing evidence regarding the likely feasibility or the effects on people’s health of these different approaches. What is clear is that this is an important area for policymakers to consider and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to bring these debates to the fore. Major transitions in energy production and resource consumption are going to be essential to protect the health of future generations. Further work is needed to establish greater clarity on how to achieve economic development that improves lives now, without damaging lives in the future.

6.2 Strengthening the evidence base

This report has described an emerging evidence base for how economic development can be used to improve the conditions that influence people’s health. There is a risk that some of the approaches described in this report will not have the desired effect or will be difficult to replicate in some contexts. Economic development strategies which aim to enhance the conditions that influence people’s health need to be closely monitored and, where possible, their effects robustly evaluated to strengthen the evidence further.

Failing to consider how economic circumstances influence health when developing and implementing economic development strategies is likely to mean missing opportunities to shape local, regional and national economies in ways which promote people’s health. However, further research is required into the effects of innovative economic development interventions on health outcomes. Particularly important areas for research include the potential benefits of social enterprises, cooperatives and anchor institutions on people’s health and health inequalities. In addition to understanding the effects of different interventions, it is important that future research also develops a better understanding of the mechanisms through which these interventions can influence health outcomes.

6.3 Resolving potential tensions associated with economic localisation

One common feature of inclusive economic development approaches is the idea of ‘localising’ economies. This includes, for example, using public sector procurement to develop local economies by giving preference to local suppliers and businesses. However, the benefits of this approach are a matter for debate. Localising economic activity may risk losing the benefits of being part of an open and competitive economy. It is possible that a more open approach to economic activity may lead to greater innovation and increases in GDP, which can be reinvested in public health, and health and social care services.

Despite the benefits of economic localisation being a matter for debate, it remains the case that the UK Industrial Strategy and growth deals aim to promote economic activity within places. However, it may be that localisation is more appropriate for some parts of the economy than others. Some industries and sectors may benefit from localisation by cutting down on supply chains and increasing resilience, while others may require specialist suppliers and cluster effects to thrive. For example, laundry services used by health and social care may benefit from being near to the point of use whereas technology sectors may thrive in areas with a high number of technology enterprises. More work is needed to determine the most effective strategies for localising economies.

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