Impacts on social care

 

The pandemic has had a major and sustained impact on social care users and staff. In this section, we summarise the latest publicly available data on COVID-19 infections, deaths and other impacts on social care in England during the second half of 2020 and up until April 2021. Where possible, we describe how the impact of COVID-19 has changed over time.

Gaps in the data mean we only have an incomplete picture. For example, there are limited data on people who fund their own care, unpaid carers, unmet care needs, and other areas. Comparing impacts across different stages of the pandemic is also difficult. Changes in the way that care home outbreaks are reported, for instance, prevent meaningful comparisons of how many care homes and residents were affected by COVID-19 in the first and second waves. The number of people living in care homes has also decreased – estimates suggest occupancy fell by around 10% since the start of the pandemic – making it harder to understand the scale of the impact on the changing care home population. Nonetheless, the available data paint a grim picture of COVID-19’s impact on social care in England.

COVID-19 deaths and excess mortality among people receiving care at home

Significant increases in mortality have been reported for people receiving social care at home throughout the pandemic so far (Figure 2). Between 11 April and 19 June 2020, there were 2,726 excess deaths recorded among people receiving domiciliary care in England – a 96% increase compared with 2017–2019. Over the summer of 2020, in June and August, the number of deaths reported to the CQC continued to be higher than in previous years. Deaths then rose again from September 2020 onwards. During the second wave, between 5 September 2020 and 2 April 2021, there were 1,349 COVID-19-related deaths among home care users in England, and there were 5,250 excess deaths – a 55% increase compared with recent years.

These figures suggest that the pandemic has had a significant impact on home care users. But both the scale of the impact and the comparison with previous years need to be interpreted with caution. Providers registered with the CQC are not required to notify the CQC of all deaths, and – as the CQC only collects data on deaths from registered and regulated organisations – the data do not include people who receive support from individual self-employed carers. As a result, the available data will not capture all deaths among people who receive home care and are likely to be an underestimate of the true impact. The CQC has also stated that reporting varies greatly between providers, regions, and over time – and the UK Homecare Association has suggested that there may have been a rise in reporting during the pandemic.

Figure 2: Deaths of people receiving care at home in England, by week reported

COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths in care homes

Care homes continued to be severely affected by COVID-19 beyond the end of the first wave in June 2020. Low numbers of COVID-19 outbreaks continued to occur in care homes between June and August, despite very low prevalence of COVID-19 in the community. As community prevalence increased from September 2020 onwards, the proportion of care homes that experienced COVID-19 outbreaks also rose. Between early September 2020 and early April 2021, 46% of care homes reported at least one confirmed case of COVID-19 (Figure 3) and there were 78,658 COVID-19 cases and 20,423 COVID-19-related deaths among care home residents (Figure 4). Throughout the pandemic, people with learning disabilities in residential care settings have been more likely to die with COVID-19 than others living in care homes.

The burden of mortality from COVID-19 has continued to fall disproportionately on care homes – albeit at a lower rate than during the first wave of the pandemic. Care home residents accounted for 26% of all COVID-19 deaths between 5 September 2020 and 2 April 2021. This compares with 40% of all COVID-19 deaths between 14 March and 19 June 2020.

Figure 3: Suspected and confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 incidents in care homes in England, by week reported

Excess mortality among care home residents

The level of excess mortality among care home residents has varied throughout the pandemic (Figure 4). During the first wave, excess mortality in care homes was significant – with 28,466 additional deaths compared with the 5-year average, equivalent to an 85% increase in mortality. But between June and September 2020, the total number of deaths among care home residents was below the average for 2015–2019. For deaths not related to COVID-19, this trend continued and remained below historical levels between October 2020 and April 2021. Both fewer deaths caused by flu infections and a decrease in the number of people who live in care homes could have contributed to this.

By the end of 2020, however, the picture worsened again. There was some excess mortality in care homes between late December 2020 and early February 2021, driven by the large number of deaths related to COVID-19 during the second wave of the pandemic. The fact that all excess deaths among care home residents between December 2020 and February 2021 were attributed to COVID-19 probably reflects improvements in access to COVID-19 testing, in contrast to the first wave when COVID-19 deaths were likely under-recorded.

Figure 4: Deaths of care home residents in England, by week reported

Early impact of care home vaccinations

There are encouraging early signs that that fast rollout of COVID-19 vaccines better protected care home residents against the virus in early 2021. Care homes for older people (aged 65 and older) were prioritised during the vaccination rollout (see section on vaccine prioritisation), and there is emerging evidence suggesting a substantial reduction in COVID-19 infection risk in older care home residents from 4 weeks after the first dose. Throughout February and March 2021, the number of COVID-19 deaths in care homes decreased faster than the number of deaths among the general population (Figure 5). However, people aged 70 and older living in the community were also prioritised for vaccination in England and, in the absence of granular data on COVID-19 infections among care home residents, the publicly available data are not yet sufficient to assess the full impact of vaccinations in care homes.

Figure 5: Deaths involving COVID-19 among care home residents and in the general population by age group in England and Wales

Shown as a percentage of the winter 2021 peak per group (logarithmic scale), by week reported.

Care and support needs

Care and support needs are likely to have continued to rise after the first wave of COVID-19. In a survey of 5,904 carers conducted by Carers UK in September 2020, 78% said the needs of the person they care for had increased since the start of the pandemic. Social care leaders have also reported increases in the number of people presenting with care needs. Among the most cited reasons for increases in need were people being discharged from hospital (cited by 70% of local authority leaders surveyed in October and November 2020, up from 55% in May 2020), carer breakdown, sickness or unavailability (64%, up from 53%), and older and disabled people presenting for domestic abuse and safeguarding (69%, up from 42%).

Access to social care and support services

Despite increases in care needs, data suggest that fewer people have been accessing local authority-funded long-term care than before the pandemic. In September 2020, 800 fewer younger adults and 12,150 fewer older people were supported in residential and nursing care than in March, a decrease of 2.6% and 10.5% respectively. Compared with the previous year, a higher number of requests for local authority-funded support resulted in signposting to other services (14% higher for younger adults and 10% higher for older people) and more requests from younger adults resulted in no services provided (5% increase).

In October and November 2020, an increasing proportion of local authority leaders reported care homes and home care providers closing, ceasing trading, or handing back contracts (see section below on financial impact on providers and local authorities). High proportions also reported a rise in requests for support due to temporary closures of day services (66% of leaders) or the unavailability of community or voluntary support (43% of leaders). Reduced access to services continues to be a challenge for unpaid carers, with 38% reporting providing more care as a result. Taken together, data on care and support needs and access to services suggest that unmet need for social care is likely to have grown.

Access to health care services

Recent evidence suggests that care home residents were disproportionately affected by the reduction in hospital services experienced during the first wave of COVID-19. Between 1 March and 31 May 2020, hospital admissions for care home residents were markedly lower than in 2019, with a decline of 36% for non-COVID-19 related emergency admissions and 63% fewer elective care admissions. Overall routine admissions for the general population fell by 56% during the same period, although the decrease was larger for certain groups of diagnoses (Figure 6). For example, there was an 81% reduction in admissions for cataract surgeries and a 49% decrease in admissions for cancer, compared with the previous year.

These findings appear to substantiate concerns that care home residents may have faced additional barriers to accessing hospital treatment during the first wave of the pandemic.,, Some hospital admissions from care homes may have been avoided through increased primary and community care, and some residents might have been reluctant to seek hospital treatment due to fear of infection. However, the scale of the reduction in admissions means that many care home residents will still be waiting for essential care, with potential impacts on quality of life and the risk of health deteriorating.

Figure 6: Elective hospital admissions for care home residents between 1 March and 31 May, by ICD-10 chapter of the primary diagnosis and year

Percentage changes on the graph indicate the change in the number of admissions between 2019 and 2020.

There are indications that some individuals with care and support needs remained unable or reluctant to seek hospital treatment beyond the first wave of the pandemic. In November 2020, almost half of local authority leaders reported that people not being admitted to hospital continued to lead rising numbers of requests for support.

Impact on carers and care workers

The burden on unpaid carers appears to have increased, with negative effects. In a survey conducted in October 2020, four out of five unpaid carers reported that they are providing more care since the start of the pandemic. Rising care responsibilities and reduced access to services are taking a toll on carers: 58% reported feeling more stressed and many reported other negative impacts on their mental health and capacity to care safely. Almost a third (30%) reported significant financial pressure, particularly among those with full-time work.

The impact of the pandemic on social care staff has also been significant. Between 9 March and 28 December 2020, there were 469 deaths involving COVID-19 among social care workers in England and Wales. During this period, social care workers have been at significantly higher risk of dying from COVID-19 – a 2.5 times increase in risk for men and 2.1 times increase in risk for women, compared with others of the same age and sex. The risk of dying from COVID-19 for social care workers did not improve in the second half of 2020.

The available data on wider impacts on care workers is less recent. In a survey conducted during July and August 2020, over 80% of care workers reported increases in workload and 56% reported increased working hours since the start of the pandemic. For almost half of respondents this had contributed to the deterioration of their own health.

Financial impact on providers and local authorities

COVID-19 has increased pressure on an already fragile care provider market. In a survey conducted in November 2020, 83% of social care providers reported increased costs, while 75% reported a decline in revenue. Care home occupancy has fallen substantially during the pandemic and is not projected to recover to pre-pandemic levels until November 2021.

Care providers are increasingly finding that their services are not financially viable. 60% of local authority leaders surveyed by ADASS in October and November 2020 reported care home and home care providers in their area closing, ceasing trading or handing back contracts in the previous 6 months – up from 43% of local authority leaders in March 2020.

The pandemic has also affected the finances of local authorities responsible for commissioning publicly funded social care. In 2020/21, local authorities spent an extra £3.2bn on adult social care due to COVID-19 – equivalent to over 40% of all COVID-19 additional expenses by local authorities. As well as creating additional cost pressures, including for social care services, the pandemic has reduced local government income from charges and business rates. This follows a decade of cuts to local government funding. 86% of local authority leaders surveyed in October and November 2020 had either only partial or no confidence that their budgets would be sufficient to meet their statutory duties in 2021/22, up from 76% in May 2020.


§§§ Between March and June 2020, data on care home outbreaks were reported, which were defined as two or more confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19. From June 2020 onwards, COVID-19 incidents were reported, defined as at least one laboratory confirmed case.

¶¶¶ According to CQC regulation 16, deaths must be notified only if the person died while a regulated activity was being provided or if the death may have been a result of that regulated activity or how it was provided.

**** First wave: 14 March 2020 – 19 June 2020, second wave: 5 September 2020 – 2 April 2021. At the time of writing, data were available for the period covering 11 April 2020 to 2 April 2021. Excess deaths were calculated relative to the 2017–2019 average. Week 53 3-year average was not available; therefore, the week 52 3-year average was used to compare against week 52 in 2020. Weeks commencing on Saturdays.

†††† Number of positive PCR tests among care home residents between 9 September 2020 and 6 April 2021, conducted as part of routine monthly asymptomatic testing or for people who experience symptoms.

‡‡‡‡ COVID-19 deaths among care home residents (as shown in Figure 4) were compared to all COVID-19 deaths in England published by the ONS, covering the period up to 2 April 2021 (www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending2april2021).

§§§§ First wave: 16 March 2020 – 21June 2020, second wave: 7 September 2020 – 4 April 2021. A suspected COVID-19 outbreak is defined as two or more residents experiencing a similar illness. Outbreaks can be confirmed using laboratory testing. A COVID-19 infection incident is defined as at least one laboratory confirmed case of COVID-19. Weeks commencing on Mondays. At the time of writing, data were available covering the period to 4 April 2021.

¶¶¶¶ First wave: 14 March 2020 – 19 June 2020, second wave: 5 September 2020 – 2 April 2021. At the time of writing, data were available for the period up to 2 April 2021. Excess deaths were calculated relative to the 2015–2019 average. Week 53 5-year average was not available; therefore, the week 52 5-year average was used to compare against week 52 in 2020. Weeks commencing on Saturdays.

***** Weeks commencing on Saturdays. At the time of writing, data were available covering the period to 2 April 2021.

††††† Changes in the number of people accessing long-term care in nursing and residential care settings were calculated using data from the NHS Digital (Mid-Year 2020–21 Adult Social Care Activity, SALT T38), by comparing the number of clients accessing long-term support at 30 September 2020, by age band and support setting, with the number of clients accessing long-term support at the end of the year 2019/20. Data can be accessed via the NHS Digital website (https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/mi-mid-year-adult-social-care-activity/mid-year-2020-21).

‡‡‡‡‡ Changes in the number of requests for support that resulted in signposting to other services or no services provided were calculated using data from the NHS Digital (Mid-Year 2020–21 Adult Social Care Activity, SALT T10 and T11), by comparison to the equivalent annual figure from 2019/20 divided by two as provided in the comparative data tables.

§§§§§ Neoplasms: abnormal growth of cells; includes benign tumours and cancers.

¶¶¶¶¶ Genitourinary system: organs of the reproductive system and the urinary system.

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