Results

Residents in the matched control group had broadly similar characteristics to Nottingham City residents in the study

After matching, the control group was found to be broadly similar to the Nottingham City residents in the study across the range of individual and care home characteristics considered (see Figure 2). In particular:

• Mean follow-up time of a resident in the study was similar across the groups: 333 days (standard deviation 245 days) for Nottingham City residents; 336 days (standard deviation 236 days) for matched control residents.

• Mortality rates (how many residents died in each group) were similar: 309 (39.5%) Nottingham City residents died during the study period, compared to 298 (38%) of matched control residents.

• Average age was 86 years for Nottingham City residents (range 80–90 years) compared to 85 years for the matched control residents (range 79–90 years).

• Average number of health conditions linked to frailty was 2.17 (standard deviation 1.40) for Nottingham City residents compared to 2.14 (1.31) for matched control residents.

• Average number of emergency admissions in prior year was 1.68 (standard deviation 1.62) for Nottingham City residents compared to 1.62 (1.38) for matched control residents.

Table 2 compares the Nottingham City residents in the study, the matched control group and the full pool of potential controls at baseline. The broad profile of conditions is similar between the groups. Some residual difference remained between groups, notably on outpatient and missed outpatient appointments in prior year and some frailty diagnoses (dementia, cognitive impairment, anxiety/depression, dependence, pressure ulcers) and other morbidities (cognitive dysfunction, peripheral vascular disease). However, the differences were not significant enough to undermine the results and any outstanding dissimilarities at least on observable characteristics were subsequently addressed via the risk-adjusted analysis outlined in Figure 1.

Figure 2: Percentage of Nottingham City residents and matched control residents with certain health conditions


Note: the figure is based on the diagnoses recorded on the inpatient record during the three years prior to moving to the care home.

Source: analysis by the Improvement Analytics Unit

Table 2: Baseline characteristics before and after matching

Variable

Potential controls

Matched comparison

Nottingham City

Total number of unique records

5421

782

782

Total number of records

5421

782

782

Age

85.00 [80.00, 90.00]

85.00 [80.00, 90.00]

86.00 [79.00, 90.00]

Male

37.2

36.6

38

Ethnicity – White

86.5

86.8

85.3

Ethnicity – Other

6.3

6.4

5.2

Hospital utilisation

Emergency admissions in prior year

2.06 (1.81)

1.62 (1.38)

1.68 (1.62)

Emergency admissions in year before prior year

0.78 (1.43)

0.68 (1.22)

0.67 (1.20)

A&E attendances in prior year

2.41 (2.28)

1.89 (2.21)

2.06 (3.27)

A&E attendances in year before prior year

1.08 (2.18)

1.02 (3.34)

0.90 (3.20)

Emergency bed days in prior year

36.38 (40.22)

27.42 (34.27)

29.35 (35.90)

A&E attendances that did not result in admission in prior year

0.78 (1.32)

0.57 (1.57)

0.66 (2.54)

Potentially avoidable emergency admissions in prior year

0.62 (0.97)

0.48 (0.72)

0.49 (0.85)

Ordinary elective admissions in prior year

0.27 (0.88)

0.23 (0.97)

0.31 (1.18)

Outpatient appointments in prior year

3.15 (5.44)

2.53 (4.21)

3.02 (4.63)

Missed outpatient appointments in prior year

0.56 (1.20)

0.31 (0.72)

0.42 (0.93)

Average length of stay following emergency admissions in prior year

19.56 (23.14)

16.13 (18.96)

15.98 (18.94)

Table 2 continued

Variable

Potential controls

Matched comparison

Nottingham City

Dementia (analysis specific)

54.3

60.5

53.8

Charlson Index

2.44 (1.84)

2.40 (1.69)

2.41 (1.83)

Number of frailty co-morbidities

2.26 (1.41)

2.14 (1.31)

2.17 (1.40)

Frailty co-morbidities

Anxiety/depression

18

16.5

19.8

Cognitive impairment

69.3

72

69.6

Delirium

20.5

20.6

22.3

Dementia (frailty definition)

63.9

68.9

65.3

Dependency

19.9

19.2

25.7

Falls/fractures

51.4

47.1

49.6

Incontinence

19.8

19.2

17.8

Mobility problems

33.1

29

26.3

Pressure ulcers

13.9

11.3

8.2

Senility

4.5

4.7

4.1

Other co-morbidities

Alcohol abuse

3.7

3.6

3.7

Any cancer

10.7

9.1

10

Cardiovascular disease

33.2

28.9

27

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

15

13.3

14.8

Dementia (Charlson definition)

53.6

59.8

53.2

Diabetes, complicated

3.4

3.5

3.6

Diabetes, uncomplicated

21.8

21.2

21.5

Fluid and electrolyte disorders

29.3

27.6

29.3

Mental ill health

70.3

72.5

72.4

Cognitive dysfunction

42.1

39.4

45.5

Myocardial infarction

13.7

10.7

12.7

Obesity

3.8

3.7

3.1

Peripheral vascular disease

8.1

5.8

8.7

Renal disease

20.3

20.3

24.2

Rheumatoid arthritis

5.7

4.5

7.2

Weight loss

6.2

4.1

8.3

Source: analysis by the Improvement Analytics Unit

Statistically significant reductions in some measures of emergency hospital use were detected for Nottingham City care home residents

Figure 3 shows trends in hospital utilisation over time. For each chart, the horizontal axis represents time in the study (with quarterly increments), and entry into a care home is set at time zero. The vertical axis shows the mean rate of a given outcome for each corresponding quarter for Nottingham City residents in the study and matched control group residents before and after moving to a care home.

As would be expected, given the matching process, both Nottingham City and matched control residents in the study experienced broadly similar (possibly with the exception of elective admissions and outpatient attendances) rates of emergency hospital activity before moving into care homes (the left-hand panel within each chart). The right-hand side shows that, following moving to the care home, the Nottingham City residents in the study appeared to use generally less hospital care than the matched comparison group for certain types of emergency hospital activity. The regression modelling aimed to quantify how different these patterns were, when adjusting for the residual differences between the two groups in prior hospital use, as well as other baseline characteristics.

Figure 3: Rates of emergency hospital use over time.

Numbers alongside the horizontal axis indicate the number of Nottingham City care home residents who remain in the study each study quarter. The dotted line denotes entry into a care home.

Nottingham City Matched comparison

Nottingham City Matched comparison

Source: analysis by the Improvement Analytics Unit

Table 3 compares the relative rate estimates for emergency hospital use between the intervention and matched control groups. After moving into a care home, Nottingham City residents in the study experienced 0.85 emergency admissions each year on average, compared with 0.97 for the matched control residents. After regression adjustment, Nottingham City residents experienced 18% fewer emergency admissions than the matched control group. The 95% confidence interval spanned 30% lower to 5% lower so it seemed that there were statistically significantly fewer emergency admissions for Nottingham City residents than the matched control group.

Table 3: Comparison of the rate of emergency hospital use between groups

Measure

Crude rate (number per person per year)

Relative difference (adjusted rate ratio)

95% confidence interval

p-value

Nottingham City residents

Matched comparison residents

Emergency admissions

0.85

0.97

18% lower

30% lower to 5% lower

0.007

Potentially avoidable emergency admissions

0.33

0.42

27% lower

41% lower to 11% lower

0.002

A&E attendances

1.43

1.38

5% lower

17% lower to 8% higher

0.397

A&E attendances that did not result in admission

0.57

0.58

20% lower

34% lower to 3% lower

0.024

Hospital bed days following admission

9.8 (21.9)

9.5 (26)

22% higher

14% lower to 54% higher

*

Hospital bed days following an emergency admission

8.0 (17.1)

9.0 (25.1)

6% higher

26% lower to 33% higher

*

Note: * = no p-values are available for these outcomes, as the confidence interval for the intervention effect was calculated using bootstrap methodology.

Source: analysis by the Improvement Analytics Unit

Nottingham City residents in the study experienced 0.33 potentially avoidable admissions per person per year, compared with 0.42 for matched control residents. After adjustment, there were 27% fewer potentially avoidable admissions among the Nottingham City group compared to the matched control residents. The 95% confidence interval spanned 41% lower to 11% lower so, again, it seemed that there were statistically significantly fewer potentially avoidable emergency admissions for Nottingham City residents than the matched control group.

Nottingham City residents in the study experienced an average of 1.43 A&E attendances per year after moving into a care home compared with 1.38 attendances for matched control residents. After adjustment, there were 5% fewer A&E attendances among the Nottingham City residents. However, the 95% confidence interval indicates the true value is likely to be between 17% lower to 8% higher, so this finding is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence level.

A statistically significant reduction (20% lower) was detected, after adjustment, for A&E attendances that did not result in an emergency admission (unadjusted averages of 0.57 and 0.58 for Nottingham City and matched control residents respectively). The 95% confidence interval indicates the true value is likely to be between 34% lower to 3% lower.

Examined Nottingham City residents spent on average 9.8 days in hospital during the study follow-up compared to the 9.5 days observed among matched control residents (standard deviation of 21.9 and 26 respectively). After adjustment, 22% more days were estimated to be spent in hospital by Nottingham City residents compared to matched control residents; however, this increase appeared not to be statistically significant as its 95% confidence interval ranged from 14% fewer to 54% more bed days. The same conclusion was reached about hospital bed days prompted by an emergency admission. On average Nottingham City residents spent eight days in hospital during the study period compared to the nine days among matched control residents (standard deviation of 17.1 and 25.1 respectively). After adjustment Nottingham City residents were found to spend 6% more days in hospital following an emergency admission but with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 26% fewer to 33% more bed days, compared to matched control residents.

Nottingham City residents might have been less likely to die in hospital than matched control residents but evidence was inconclusive

Of the residents who died, a smaller percentage of Nottingham City residents died in hospital (29.4%) than matched control residents (35.9%). After adjustment, Nottingham City residents were 27% less likely to die in hospital (95% confidence interval: 49% lower to 4% higher). Although this finding might indicate that Nottingham City residents were better supported in dying in their preferred place of death, the confidence interval shows this result was not conclusive, as the proportion of patients who died in hospital could have been up to 4% higher than the matched comparison patients.

A statistically significant difference in elective admissions and outpatient appointments for Nottingham City residents was not detected

Nottingham City residents in the study experienced 0.13 ordinary elective admissions per person per year on average, compared with 0.11 for matched control residents. After adjustment, there were 13% more ordinary elective admissions among the Nottingham City group compared to the matched control residents. However, this finding is not statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval as the true value is likely to be between 24% lower to 67% higher.

There was no evidence that the number of acute outpatient attendances differed between Nottingham City and matched control residents (2.06 attendances for Nottingham City residents, 1.65 attendances for matched control residents, rate ratio 1.02, 95% CI 0.86, 1.21).

Statistically significant reductions in emergency hospital use were detected for Nottingham City residents living in residential care homes

We conducted subgroup analyses to determine the impact of the intervention on hospital use for residents of care homes where nursing care was provided (‘nursing care homes’) and, separately, assessed the impact on residents of care homes where no nursing care is provided by the home (‘residential care homes’).

Nottingham City residents living in residential care homes had statistically significantly lower numbers than matched control group residents living in residential care homes of emergency admissions (34% fewer), potentially avoidable emergency admissions (39% fewer), A&E attendances (20% fewer) and A&E attendances that did not result in an emergency admission (35% fewer). See Table 4 for crude rates, adjusted rates and confidence intervals. No statistically significant differences were observed in the number of hospital bed days, whether total (estimated as 12% more among Nottingham City residents but with a 95% confidence interval of 49% lower to 35% higher) or following an emergency admission only (estimated as 5% more among Nottingham City residents but with a 95% confidence interval of 54% lower to 24% higher), between nursing and residential care homes when comparing Nottingham City and matched control residents.

Table 4: Comparison of the rate of emergency hospital use between groups for residents living in residential homesNote: * = no p-values are available for these outcomes, as the confidence interval for the intervention effect was calculated using bootstrap methodology.

Measure

Crude rate (number per person per year)

Relative difference (adjusted rate ratio)

95% confidence interval

p-value

Nottingham City residents

Matched comparison residents

Emergency admissions

0.74

1.02

34% lower

47% lower to 18% lower

<0.001

Potentially avoidable emergency admissions

0.27

0.41

39% lower

54% lower to 18% lower

<0.001

A&E attendances

1.42

1.51

20% lower

33% lower to 4% lower

0.012

A&E attendances that did not result in admission

0.65

0.71

35% lower

50% lower to 16% lower

<0.001

Hospital bed days

8.5 (19.3)

9.1 (18.8)

12% higher

49% lower to 35% higher

*

Hospital bed days following an emergency admission

7.5 (17.5)

8.4 (17)

5% higher

54% lower to 24% higher

*

Source: analysis by the Improvement Analytics Unit

There was no statistically significant evidence of any difference between Nottingham City and matched control residents of nursing care homes in terms of emergency hospital use. See Table 5 for crude rates, adjusted rates and confidence intervals.

Table 5: Comparison of the rate of emergency hospital use between groups for residents living in nursing homes

Measure

Crude rate (number per person per year)

Relative difference (adjusted rate ratio)

95% confidence interval

p-value

Nottingham City residents

Matched comparison residents

Emergency admissions

0.97

0.92

1% lower

20% lower to 23% higher

0.955

Potentially avoidable emergency admissions

0.39

0.43

15% lower

37% lower to 14% higher

0.258

A&E attendances

1.45

1.24

11% higher

9% lower to 34% higher

0.294

A&E attendances that did not result in admission

0.49

0.43

8% higher

20% lower to 46% higher

0.592

Hospital bed days

11.1 (24.4)

9.9 (31.9)

47% higher

3% lower to 109% higher

*

Hospital bed days following an emergency admission

8.6 (16.8)

9.5 (31.5)

21% higher

19% lower to 85% higher

*

Note: * = no p-values are available for these outcomes, as the confidence interval for the intervention effect was calculated using bootstrap methodology.

Source: analysis by the Improvement Analytics Unit

A statistically significant lower proportion of Nottingham City residents living in residential care homes died in hospital

Of the residential care home residents who died, a smaller percentage of Nottingham City residential care home residents died in hospital (26.6%) than matched control people living in residential homes (42.8%). After adjustment, people in Nottingham City residential care homes were 51% less likely to die in hospital (95% confidence interval: 72% lower to 17% lower).

There was no statistically significant evidence of any difference between Nottingham City and matched control residents of nursing care homes in terms of the proportion of residents who died in hospital. 21.8% of Nottingham City nursing home residents died in hospital compared to 30% of control nursing home residents. After adjustment, there was no overall effect with a 95% confidence interval between 39% lower to 66% higher.

Nottingham City residents living in residential care homes had a statistically significant higher rate of outpatient attendances

People living in Nottingham City residential care homes in the study experienced 2.03 outpatient attendances per person per year, compared with 1.40 for matched control residents. After adjustment, there were 30% more estimated outpatient attendances among the Nottingham City residential care home group compared to people in the matched control group living in a residential care home. The 95% confidence interval indicates a range of 4% higher to 63% higher.

People living in Nottingham City nursing homes in the study experienced 2.09 outpatient attendances per person per year, compared with 1.94 for matched control residents. After adjustment, there were 17% fewer estimated outpatient attendances among the Nottingham City nursing care home group compared to people in the matched control group living in a nursing home. However, the 95% confidence interval indicates a range of 36% lower to 6% higher indicating that the result was not significant at a 95% confidence interval.

There was no statistically significant difference between people in Nottingham City and matched control group residential care homes in terms of numbers of ordinary elective admissions. Nor was there any statistically significant difference between people in Nottingham City and matched control group nursing homes in terms of numbers of ordinary elective admissions.

Statistically significant reductions in some measures of emergency hospital use were detected for Nottingham City care home residents with a diagnosis of dementia

We conducted a subgroup analysis to determine the impact of the intervention on hospital use for care home residents who had previously been diagnosed with dementia in hospital. We found no evidence to suggest that the impact of the enhanced package of care differs between dementia and non-dementia patients. Findings for care home residents with dementia are very similar to those for all care home residents (results not shown).

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