Part 1. Background and methodology

 

Prevalence of mental health disorders among children and young people

There is limited UK-wide evidence on the prevalence of mental health disorders among children and young people. In 1999 and 2004, the Office for National Statistics carried out two large surveys of young people aged 5–15 years living in England, Scotland and Wales. More recent comparable figures are available for England only: a survey of a cohort of 5–19-year-olds carried out by NHS England in 2017, with more recent follow-ups during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.,, The assessments are based on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), a validated tool to assess different aspects of mental health, including problems with emotions, behaviour and hyperactivity.

In 2021, 1 in 6 children and young people aged 6–16 years in England had a probable mental health disorder (17.4%), up from 1 in 9 in 2017 (11.6%, Figure 1). Among young women aged 17–19 years, this figure rises to 1 in 4 (24.8%) in 2021. Although prevalence estimates are not directly comparable over time due to changes in methodology, the indication that the prevalence of mental health conditions among children and young people in the UK has risen substantially over the past two decades is supported by other research., There is little doubt that the pandemic has contributed to this trend, with the mental health effects of pandemic restrictions greatest for children and young adults.,,,,

Which groups are at higher risk?

A 2021 survey in England found that among young children, boys are at higher risk of developing a mental health disorder than girls (Figure 2). This trend reverses in adolescence and girls are at higher risk in other age groups, with young women most strongly affected. The national surveys are limited in their ability to fully capture other demographic characteristics that might signal increased risk, but other studies have shed light on this, including:

  • Ethnicity: There are disparities in the prevalence of mental health disorders between children and young people from different ethnic backgrounds., White adolescents tend to report worse mental health than young people from other ethnic groups, but rates of attempted suicide at age 17 were similar across ethnic groups. A better understanding of these differences is still limited by the often small sample size of survey respondents from minority ethnic groups, cultural differences in self-reported mental health, and because heterogenous ethnic groups are often grouped into a single ‘non-white’ category, which may be masking underlying differences. There are known differences in referral routes to specialist mental health services, with minority ethnic young people more likely to be referred through compulsory pathways (eg social care, education, youth justice) rather than voluntary pathways., Therefore, the under-representation of children from minority ethnic backgrounds in UK mental health services might actually represent unmet need, rather than lower prevalence.
  • Sexual orientation: There are also large disparities by sexuality, with the highest reported prevalence of serious mental health outcomes for LGB+ young people, especially depressive symptoms and self-harm.,
  • Deprivation: The link between socioeconomic deprivation and child mental health problems is well documented,, with children and young people living in lower income households more likely to have poor mental health.,

Figure 1: Percentage of children and young people with a probable mental health disorder in Great Britain in 1999 and 2004 and England in 2017, 2020 and 2021

Source: 2017–2021 Mental Health of Children and Young People in England Survey; 1999 The mental health of children and adolescents in Great Britain; 2004 Mental health of children and young people in Great Britain. Between 2017 and 2021, 6 to 16 year olds are considered to have a probable mental health condition based on answers to the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. In 1999 and 2004, survey responses were analysed by clinicians using a case vignette approach.

Figure 2: Percentage of children and young people with a probable mental health disorder in England, 2021

Source: 2021 Mental Health of Children and Young People in England Survey.

Policies in England, Scotland and Wales

Governments in all three countries have recognised the importance of good mental health for children and young people, and the rising prevalence of mental health problems in these age groups. In the past decade, all have published cross-government strategies to improve services across sectors, not just those provided by the NHS (Box 1). These strategies have several strands in common, including:

  • more provision of mental health and wellbeing support in schools and the community outside the NHS, including a focus on prevention
  • improving access to (and reducing waiting times for) specialist Children and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS)
  • improved crisis care
  • extending mental health services beyond age 18, to 25 or 26 (Scotland).

Box 1: Key strategies in England, Scotland and Wales

Scotland

Scotland published a 10-year strategy for mental health in 2017 that included pledges to improve mental health support in schools, target help for at-risk groups such as young offenders, and funding to improve CAMHS. Scotland had already set waiting times for CAMHS in 2010 (26 weeks from referral to first appointment), which was reduced to 18 weeks in 2014. In 2018, Audit Scotland found that preventative services in schools and the community were ‘patchy,’ and average waits for specialist CAMHS had risen along with the proportion of rejected referrals., It called for better data on activity and spending, including rejected referrals to CAMHS. In response, the government launched the Children and Young People’s Mental Health Taskforce which reported in 2019. The taskforce called for improvements to CAMHS and better services at ‘tier 1’ ie GPs, schools and non-specialist services in the community. New national standards for CAMHS were published in 2020. Targets to increase CAMHS capacity (in order to treat an additional 10,000 patients within 5 years) and a minimum investment standard (of 1% of NHS spending) were introduced in the government’s programme for 2021/22.

Audit Scotland published a brief update in August 2021 stating that waiting times for CAMHS had continued to grow and almost 1 in 4 referrals were rejected. It recognised that investment had been made in prevention and guidance published for schools but said it was too early to tell whether these were working.

England

The NHS Long Term Plan (2019) pledged to expand access to mental health support. It promised that by 2023/24, ‘at least an additional 345,000’ children and young people aged 0–25 years would be able to access support via NHS-funded mental health services and through school or college. This was in addition to an earlier promise, made in the Five year forward view for mental health, for 70,000 additional children and young people to access NHS mental health services each year by 2020/21, which equated to delivering services to approximately 35% of those with mental health needs (based on 2004 prevalence data). The long term plan promised that ‘over the next decade’ 100% of children and young people who need specialist care would be able to access it. A 4-week waiting time target has since been proposed for CAMHS, from referral to receiving ‘help’, ranging from an assessment for specialist help to redirection to another service.

A 2021 report from the Health and Social Care Committee recognised that progress had been made in expanding both CAMHS and non-NHS services in schools and the community. But it concluded that current plans were not ambitious enough, since more than half of young people were without the support that they needed and ‘the proportion accessing adequate care has gone into reverse because of the pandemic’. The government estimates that 60% of children and young people with a diagnosable mental health condition do not receive any NHS care and has issued a call for evidence to create a new 10-year cross-government mental health strategy. The last strategy was published in 2011.

Wales

In Wales, the government published an all-ages, 10-year mental health strategy in 2012, Together for mental health. This cross-government strategy promised a range of action for children and young people, including promoting wellbeing and preventing mental illness (including in education), and improved access to specialist CAMHS. A cross-government suicide prevention strategy published in 2015 included actions targeted on at-risk children and young people. In 2014, an inquiry by the Senedd Children, Young People and Education Committee found inadequate capacity in CAMHS for young people needing specialist mental health services, and unmet need for those requiring less intensive mental health support. This led to the creation of the NHS-led Together for Children and Young People programme to improve a broad range of services. This included better prevention (eg a reformed curriculum to promote wellbeing) and improved specialist care (eg crisis teams with a waiting time target of 48 hours, and faster access to CAMHS from 16 weeks to 4 weeks).

Reviews by the same Senedd committee in 2018 and 2020 pressed for faster change, recognising that while improvements had been made in education, much more needed to be done in health and local government.,

In 2020, the Together for mental health delivery plan (2019–2022) reported that progress had been made in reducing waiting times and setting up crisis intervention teams for CAMHS. Priorities for the future included extending mental health support into schools (with additional funding allocated because of COVID-19), further reducing waiting times for CAMHS, and improving crisis and out-of-hours services.

The structure of services

Although strategies to improve services vary between Scotland, England and Wales, services are structured in a broadly similar way. Until recently, services have been grouped into four ‘tiers’, although some areas, including England, are increasingly moving away from this model. Nevertheless, the scheme is a useful way of capturing the scope and source of services. Tier 1 generally comprises services designed to prevent mental health problems or respond to less severe mental health problems and includes NHS services (eg general practice), services funded by local government (eg youth services) or via schools (counselling). Although the composition of teams within tiers 2 and 3 may vary locally, they comprise specialist services for children and adolescent mental health (CAMHS), delivered in an outpatient setting. Tier 4, the most specialised services, includes inpatient care.

While data are collected across these four tiers, most are not routinely published. There are very limited data from general practice, and no publicly available data relating to mental health provision in schools or services funded by local government or the voluntary sector. All three countries routinely capture data on hospital admissions, and detentions under the Mental Health Act 1983.

Pressures on services

Although NHS mental health service capacity has been expanded over recent years, it is still vastly outstripped by demand. In England, the number of children and young people in contact with CAMHS rose by 46.6% between 2019 and 2021. However, due to the rising prevalence of mental health disorders, overall access to support remains low. In 2020, 27% of children and young people who needed support were receiving it, compared to 25% in 2017 (Figure 3).

The COVID-19 pandemic has likely contributed to rising demand. After an initial slowdown early in the pandemic, new referrals to CAMHS in England reached a peak of 87,000 per month in 2021, the highest number since the start of the data series in 2019. Certain services, such as support for eating disorders, have seen a clear rise in cases since the pandemic began while others, such as urgent crisis referrals, have been rising since before COVID-19.

Lengthening waiting times are a symptom of demand rising faster than services can expand. The available data, which vary substantially between nations due to different waiting time and access targets, paint a mixed picture. In Scotland, where the target is for 90% of children and young people to start treatment within 18 weeks, only 70.3% did so during the last quarter of 2021, a decrease compared with 73.1% in the same period in 2020. In Wales, on average 46% of first appointments took place within 4 weeks in 2021, a decrease from 65% in 2020. In England, the average waiting time for those accepted into services was 32 days in 2020/21, down from 43 days in in 2019/20. However, this overall improvement may be masking large geographical variation, with average waiting times in some areas being as long as 81 days.

Figure 3: Number of children and young people with a probable mental health disorder and number in contact with CAMHS in England

Source: NHS Digital Mental Health Bulletin, Mental Health of Children and Young People in England Survey. The estimated number of people with a probable MH condition comes from: (population 6-16)*(proportion of 6-16 with probable MH)+(population 17-18)*(proportion of 17-19 with probable MH).

In England, waiting time standards currently only exist for access to treatment for eating disorders, which is highly specialised and represents a small part of mental health services for children and young people. The target is for 95% of patients to start treatment for eating disorders within 4 weeks of referral for routine cases, and within 1 week for urgent cases. In 2021, on average only 49.0% of routine cases and 39.1% of urgent cases started treatment within these times. A 4-week target from referral to ‘help’ for children presenting to community based NHS services has been piloted in England, with plans for national implementation.

Importantly, in all three countries, the figures do not capture children and young people not accepted for treatment in the first place. There are currently no data on what happens to children and young people referred but not accepted for treatment, such as whether they accessed other services or went without help. However, unmet need is likely to be significant given the large gap between prevalence and CAMHS treatment rates.

Aims of this analysis

Meeting the mental health needs of children and young people in all three countries depends on those planning and providing services having a clear understanding of who is using what kinds of services (including by age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic background as a minimum) and how these data compare with expected levels of need derived from prevalence surveys (and other research evidence).

Much of the data used to monitor children and young people’s use of services in all three countries focuses on specialist mental health services (rather than including eg primary care or emergency services), and does not include important characteristics such as age or sex.

A primary aim of this research is to use local analysis of linked data to shed more light on who is using children and young people’s mental health services. A second aim is to see if the observed patterns could indicate where there might be unmet need that would allow for better targeting of services in the future.

Approach and methods

About the Networked Data Lab

Launched in 2019, the Networked Data Lab (NDL) is a collaborative network of analytical teams across the UK. It aims to provide local and national health system leaders with fresh insights to improve the UK’s health and care systems, including reducing inequalities in health and access to services.

The programme is led by the Health Foundation and comprises the following partners:

  • NDL Grampian: The Aberdeen Centre for Health Data Science (ACHDS) which includes NHS Grampian and the University of Aberdeen
  • NDL Wales: Public Health Wales, Digital Health and Care Wales (DHCW), Swansea University (SAIL Databank) and Social Care Wales (SCW)
  • NDL North West London: Imperial College Health Partners (ICHP), Institute of Global Health Innovation (IGHI), Imperial College London (ICL) and North West London CCGs
  • NDL Liverpool and Wirral: Liverpool CCG and Healthy Wirral Partnership
  • NDL Leeds: Leeds CCG and Leeds City Council.

Analysis approach

The NDL uses a federated analytics approach meaning that analysis is performed locally, eliminating the need for patient data to leave secure local systems. This approach allows us to gain new insights from rich linked datasets that are not available at the national level. It also enables the NDL to benefit from local data expertise and understanding of the local context brought by analysts, clinicians and patients.

To maximise the value of locally held data, the NDL uses a mixture of standardised metrics and bespoke approaches designed by individual partners according to local needs and data availability. For each analysis topic, we look for an appropriate balance between standardisation and customisation. For children and young people’s mental health, the heterogeneity of locally available datasets led us to choose a flexible approach, where each partner designed bespoke analyses to fully take advantage of local data and linkages. Research questions were identified and prioritised by NDL teams through engagement with local patients and their families, commissioners, local authorities and service providers. Patient and public involvement was central in shaping research questions from a service user perspective and in communicating findings. The research covered a wide range of topics, from inequalities in access to services to the role of the ambulance service in mental health crises.

A summary of the research questions we tackled and the datasets we used is provided in Table 2. NDL partners collaborated closely by sharing their approaches to creating and processing new data sources and linkages, including information governance, as well as methodology. The results and insights were then shared across the network and synthesised for this briefing. A full description of methods can be found in the accompanying technical appendix and the analysis code is available for the wider analytical community.

Table 1: New and existing mental health datasets used by the NDL

NDL partner

Questions

Datasets and linkages

Grampian (Scotland)

How have mental health prescribing and referrals to specialist mental health services changed over time?

Which sociodemographic groups are most likely to receive medication, to be referred for specialist treatment or to be accepted for treatment?

Grampian Data Safe Haven (DaSH)

Prescribing Information System (PIS) dataset

CAMHS data

Wales

What are the trends in mental health crisis presentations across the acute health care system and their outcomes?

What are the differences in crisis presentations between sociodemographic groups, and which groups are at highest risk?

SAIL Databank

Emergency Department Dataset (EDDS), Patient Episode Database Wales (PEDW), Wales Longitudinal General Practice (WGLP), linked to the Welsh Ambulance Service Trust (WAST) dataset and the Substance Misuse Dataset (SMDS)

North West London

How do usage patterns of different mental health services vary between sociodemographic groups?

Discover Now

Hospital data from Secondary Uses Service (SUS), linked to GP events and prescriptions data, and Mental Health Trusts (CNWL/WLMHT) data

Liverpool and Wirral

How do usage patterns of different mental health services vary between sociodemographic groups?

How can linked data across services help to identify areas with potential unmet support need?

Liverpool and Wirral Data Model

Hospital data from Secondary Uses Service (SUS) and Emergency Care Dataset (ECDS), linked to Mental Health Services Dataset (MHSDS)

Leeds

What are the differences in referrals and crisis referrals to specialist mental health care between sociodemographic groups?

Which groups are at highest risk of disengaging during the transition to adult mental health services?

Leeds Data Model

Hospital data from Secondary Uses Service (SUS), linked to GP events and prescriptions data and the Mental Health Services Dataset (MHSDS)


* The World Health Organization (WHO) defines an adolescent as any person between ages 10–19 years.

NHS England also uses the abbreviation CYPMHS (children and young people’s mental health services) to describe all services that work with children and young people who have difficulties with their mental health or wellbeing. In England, CAMHS is used to describe the main specialist NHS community service within the wider CYPMHS. Scotland and Wales primarily use the term CAMHS to describe available services.

These figures differ from access rates published by NHS England as these are calculated relative to the 2004 prevalence estimate of mental health disorders that applied when the target was set. See: https://www.england.nhs.uk/mental-health/cyp/

§ This may include immediate advice, support or a brief intervention, help to access another more appropriate service, the start of a longer term intervention or agreement about a patient care plan, or the start of a specialist assessment that may take longer.

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